Entering the emerging markets – with their lucrative business possibilities – the international and Western companies usually meet high risks; moreover, most of these risks are new for the players – as emerging economies born unique risks unmet in the developed markets.
ICG provides identification and assessment of the various risks – geopolitical, financial, emergency, related to human resources, financial, market, competitive, etc. Both – quantitative and qualitative – evaluation methodologies are used for risk assessment.
After risk assessment done we provide a wide variety of risk management consultancy to the clients, from risk prevention and mitigation to risk sharing.
Challenge:?Western energy operator looked for a possibility to acquire generation assets in CEE. The financial conditions for the deal were quite beneficial for a client, but the company wanted to evaluate the risks – and then to decide if to move forward with the acquisition. ICG was hired to do the risk assessment – and to develop risk management plan if the client adopts a "go on" decision.
Approach:?At the first stage of the project we?identified various risks that may be met with a client at doing energy business in CEE – from emergency risks (both natural and man-made) to regulation risks; from HR-related risks to financial. All risks were characterized, classified and evaluated. The company’s business was assessed from the point of view of its vulnerability to various threats; such assessment was done in two levels – impact over particular business in CEE and impact over the company’s global operations. At this stage we also provided a top-level estimation for possibility of those risks avoidance, reduction, and sharing – as well as a preliminary calculation for risk management investments. We took into account not only the negative impact with this or that risk factor – but also the loss of potential benefits if a client decides to eliminate risk (for instance, in one of the power plants a client had two alternatives – to supply only corporate customers or corporate and individuals; the second option was much more risky due to involvement of numerous households but the potential benefits might overpower the related risk).
Based on the inputs from the phase I a client decided the risks would be acceptable for the business – if they invest additional money in risk prevention, mitigation and sharing programs.
In phase II we developed a detailed risk management plan for the client. All risks were classified in categories: those that may be avoided (with full elimination or mitigation); those that may be reduced; those that may be transferred; and those that may and/must be retained. ??
For risks that may be avoided the Risk Prevention Plan was developed, in particular the hazard mitigation program was done.
For risks that may be reduced the Risk Reduction Plan was developed, that in particular assumed changes in HR policy and active use of outsourcing.
For part of the risks the practical recommendations on their transfer were developed; most of them were shared by their insurance, while some emergency, regulatory and financial risks were shared with the government (in national, regional and municipal levels) – the local authorities were much interested in a foreign investor and thus agreed to share few risks.
When doing all these risk management plans ICG checked them for consistency with the national regulation and requirements, such as emergency and safety standards, labor regulation, etc.
As a part of the project ICG developed permitting schemes (to receive certification and permission with governmental agencies) in a part of fire safety, building safety, industrial safety in hazardous objects, safety of hazardous materials, safety of hazardous machinery, equipment and processes, etc.
At the final stage of the work we made the detailed cost calculation for each of the risk prevention, reduction or transfer recommendations; then the costs were compared with the potential losses at this or that negative event – with further upgrade of those anti-risk measures that cost more than probable deprivations.????
Value:?Risk assessment done with us was taken into account when a client decided if to acquire the generating assets in CEE. The risks were evaluated with a client as "acceptable" and thus the acquisition deal was continued. After a client became the owner of the energy business in CEE we developed a detailed Risk Management Plan for a client – with emphasis in risk avoidance and reducing. Few later a client could successfully pass through a series of risky events (like floods and strikes) – mainly due to client’s risk management investments done in accordance with our recommendations.